August 6th, 2024
Sam Dykstra
@SamDykstraMiLBThis story was excerpted from MLB Pipeline's newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
The Single-A and High-A regular seasons end on Sept. 8. Double-A concludes on Sept. 15, and Triple-A says goodbye to another summer of baseball on Sept. 22.
Do the math, folks. We don’t have a ton left in the 2024 Minor League Baseball schedule.
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As campaigns typically head down the home stretch (thankfully, we aren’t at this point yet), we at MLB Pipeline keep in mind some of our end-of-season awards. For this particular newsletter, we’ll think exclusively about the Minor League Hitting Prospect of the Year.
No surprise, top overall prospect Jackson Holliday took home last year’s hardware after hitting .323/.442/.499 as a teenager who climbed four levels in his first full season. But it’s important to remember that prospect stock isn’t the primary driving factor in this award; it’s production. Which notable prospect has performed best on the field in 2024 and shown the potential to be a Major League star in the years beyond?
It’s too early to call the race (what fun would that be anyway?), but we have a solid list of candidates aiming to take this year’s crown:
Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays (No. 11)
A fun throwback type of a player, Simpson leads Minor League full-season qualifiers with a .354 average over 82 games at High-A and Double-A, and one year after he tied for the MiLB lead with Victor Scott II with 94 steals, he’s nearly lapping the competition in the category with 75 this season, 20 more than any other Minor Leaguer. While Simpson lacks power, his game revolves around dinking and dunking the ball around the field to get on base and then turning singles into doubles via stolen bases, and he’s leaned into that again with a Minors-best 2.9 percent swinging-strike rate. What he’s good at, he’s downright near elite at.
Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B/3B, Marlins/D-backs (MIA No. 7)
You’ll find De Los Santos, who joined Miami's system from Arizona in last month’s A.J. Puk trade, all over the Minor League leaderboards. He sits atop those for homers (31), slugging percentage (.643), OPS (1.026) and RBIs (90). He ranks second in total bases (236), third in extra-base hits (52) and fourth in total hits (120), tying Simpson in the latter category. Two things those numbers alone won’t tell you:
- De Los Santos chases a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone.
- His power numbers were likely helped by some launching pads in Double-A Amarillo and Triple-A Reno.
That said, his move to the Marlins puts him in fairer Triple-A environments, and he’s still homered three times in seven games after the move. The 21-year-old’s raw power is as good as anyone’s in Minor League Baseball, and even with a rough approach, he’s had little issue getting that pop into games in 2024.
Adrian Del Castillo, C, D-backs (No. 28)
If De Los Santos doesn’t stand at No. 1 in a Minor League power category, it’s probably because his former fellow D-back Del Castillo does instead. The 24-year-old backstop leads the Minors with 63 extra-base hits, 240 total bases and 36 doubles for Triple-A Reno and is tied for the top mark with 126 total hits. His 1.011 OPS trails only De Los Santos’ mark, and his .608 slugging percentage places third. Even if Reno (where Del Castillo is slugging nearly 120 points higher than on the road) has something to do with his numbers, the 2021 second-rounder still has solid performance under the hood with exit velocities and contact rates that clock in above-average.
Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF, Red Sox (No. 30)
The 2023 132nd overall pick wasn’t on Boston’s Top 30 Prospects list to begin the season. He’s now a Top 100 candidate because of a stellar first full season. Campbell has actually posted a better slash line at Double-A Portland (.373/.470/.554) than the one he produced at High-A Greenville (.306/.418/.558). Combined between the two levels, he’s posted a 1.001 OPS, fourth-best in the Minors. The better number might be his 181 wRC+ that tops full-season qualifiers. Campbell has flashed power and speed too with 12 homers and 15 steals in 84 games, helping to lock in his candidacy.
Coby Mayo, 3B/1B, Orioles (No. 3/MLB No. 15)
Mayo’s advantage is that he’s the highest-ranked prospect on this shortlist. His disadvantage could be that he was called up to the Majors on Friday, putting him in danger of falling down the Minor League leaderboards or off them completely if he doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify. (He’ll take that swap for a look at The Show.) But when the 22-year-old corner infielder has been in the Minors, he’s been one of the most powerful sluggers, ranking in the top five in slugging (.619), OPS (1.003) and extra-base hits (50). His 23 homers in 81 games, mostly with Triple-A Norfolk, are tied for seventh-most in MiLB.
